December NFP Outlook

Arguments for Stronger Payrolls

1. Rise in ADP Employment Change

2. Rise in Consumer Confidence Index

3. Rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report

4. 4 week moving average of Jobless Claims drops to 290k vs. 314k

5. Continuing Claims at 2.362M vs. 2.45M

6. Rise in employment component of manufacturing ISM

Arguments for Weaker Payrolls

1. Drop in Employment Component of Service Sector ISM

2. Rise in Layoffs Reported by Challenger Grey & Christmas