Morning Update – 16/12/15 – by Arjun Lakhanpal

December 16, 2015 by savi-admin

Morning all.. Wall St closed strongly sending a clear message of support to the Fed who announce their rate decision tonight. S&P closed up over 1% and Asia has continued the theme with the Nikkei up 2.6%. US yields rose taking the USD back up as most now feel the Fed will hike 25bps tonight. Credit markets also recovered: The momentum into the close for US High Yield on Monday evening carried over into yesterday with CDX HY closing nearly 23bps tighter for its strongest day since late August. So as we look ahead to the main event at 7pm GMT this evening, it’s interesting to see where markets were the last time Fed raised rates over 9 years ago. Looking at equity markets firstly, the S&P 500 level was 1273 back then which is some 770pts below where it is now. 10y Treasury yields were nearly 300bps higher and all the way up at 5.194%. The EUR/USD exchange rate was back at 1.267 which compares to 1.093 now. Meanwhile in commodity markets Gold was down at $600/oz which is over $450 lower than where it closed yesterday, while Oil was up above $73. If we look at what asset prices did that day the Fed last raised, the S&P 500 closed up +2.16%, 10y Treasury yields dropped nearly 5bps, the US Dollar weakened nearly 1%, Oil rallied close to 2% while curiously Gold was the standout, rallying over 3% (following up with a near 3% rally the next day also). We have some big data away from the US with UK unemployment, French, German and EU PMI data, EU CPI and the EU Trade Balance.. Very soon though all focus will be on the Fed decision.. Good luck..