Morning Update – 30/11/15 – 08:12:28

November 30, 2015 by Arjun Lakhanpal

Morning all.. Wall St closed early Friday and was very quiet but Asia has had a very choppy session with the Nikkei down 0.69% but China was down sharply before a strong rally in the last hour and is now higher on the day. FX markets have been very quiet in G10 as we have a huge week ahead with the RBA, ECB meetings and the US NFP data. With regards to the ECB, expectations are high for a cut to the deposit rate of more than 10 bps now. Importantly now, traders highlight that the ECB cannot afford to under-deliver – this would likely lead to a tightening of fixed income and FX markets and also and more importantly, increase the risk of dis-anchoring inflation expectations. It seems to us that this is the bare minimum required to stop the market from being disappointed. FX markets and stocks moves were fairly modest considering, once again, the steep falls throughout the commodity complex on Friday. In Oil markets, WTI was back below $42 having declined over 3% on Friday (it’s little changed this morning). Gold had a rough day, closing -1.39% and at a fresh 5-year low as the US Dollar (+0.16%) continued to strengthen relative to the Euro. Traders will be watching oil and commodities closely again. We start this morning in the UK with the latest mortgage approvals and consumer credit data, before we then turn our attention over to Germany with the latest CPI numbers for November. In the US this afternoon, data wise the focus will be on pending home sales, while the Chicago PMI, ISM Milwaukee and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index are also expected. Good luck.