Morning Update – 31/01/2017 – by Arjun Lakhanpal
January 31, 2017Morning all.. Wall street had a rare wobble and closed lower by 0.6%. There was a spill-over into Asia where the Nikkei fell 1.69%, some of the fall blamed on a weaker USDJPY which had been weak all through the US session. The BoJ meeting was something of a non-event with just commitments to current policies and Kuroda suggesting it is desirable for currencies to reflect fundamentals.. We have heard all that before and USDJPY remains near the lows set at 113.24.. BoJ: left policy unchanged with deposit rate target at -0.1%, 10y JGB yield target around 0%; repeats will buy JGBs at ‘more or less’ previous ¥80trn annual pace and ETF purchases at ¥6trn (Kiuchi proposed ¥45trn JGB rate, voted down 8-1); BoJ Quarterly Forecasts: economy likely to expand moderately ahead; expects inflation to reach 2% around FY18; revised potential growth rate to +0.5% from 0.0-0.5%; inflation expectations remain weak; core CPI in FY16 likely -0.2% vs -0.1% previous, FY17 & FY18 f/c unchanged at +1.5% and +1.7%; real GDP in FY17 +1.4% vs +1.0% previous, FY17 & FY18 GDP forecast raised by +0.2% to +1.5% and +1.1%.. Oil was a little lower but quiet but US yields fell to 2.45% before a small bounce. Dow minis down a further 35 points..Kuwait Oil Min (BBG TV): degree of compliance to cut output is encouraging so far; some non-OPEC nations asked to join the output cut deal; current oil px appropriate for producers and consumers.. Some concerns over the huge losses at Uni-Credit in Italy. More money to be set aside for losses. This morning we get French, Spanish and EU CPI, EU GDP and UK Mortgage approvals. We also get German and Italian unemployment data.. Good luck.
