Morning Update – 31/05/2017 – by Arjun Lakhanpal

Morning all.. Wall St slipped very slightly with the S&P down just 0.12% in a quiet session for stocks even after some encouraging data for the Fed as personal income and spending met higher expectations.. The Nikkei also has a quiet but soft session closing down 0.23% as USDJPY failed to rally after the US data and drifted below 111.00 again. GBP was the big mover as it fell steeply on a rather spurious poll issued int the Times. YouGov election poll: YouGov’s first constituency-by-constituency estimate predicts Conservatives could fall short of overall majority by 16 seats leading to a hung parliament; latest poll puts Tories on 310 (down from 330 when election called) Labour on 257 (up from 229) ; projections allow for big variations & suggest Tories could win as many as 345 seats on a good night & and as few as 274 on a bad night; YouGov acknowledged controversial nature of results, said model had been tested during EU referendum campaign last year when it always had Leave ahead. This Poll looks very wide and the fall in GBP looks like stops getting hit in thin markets. On the data front we had UK May GfK Consumer Confidence: -5 vs -8 cons; consumer demand not slowing as rapidly as Q1 retail sales data first suggested; survey indicates solid overall consumer conf by historical standards. UK May BRC Shop Px: -0.4% y/y vs -0.5% y/y prev; smallest decline since Nov 2013; food px leading move upwards; BRC expect general trend of inflation to be upwards over course of year leading to squeeze in disposable income at a time of slowing wage growth. Cable trading at 1.2800 and has so far failed to rally far. In fact the dollar is a little higher across the board but USDJPY still struggling to hold above 111.00 as US yields remain subdued at 2.22%. Oil is lower again in Asia with WTI down 0.6%. This morning we get French CPI and PPI data, German unemployment and UK Mortgage approvals.. Then we have EU CPI data which will be the main event of the morning.. Good luck..