Brexit: IN/OUT

June 21, 2016 by 1000000.mining@gmail.com

British voters will be deciding whether to continue to remain a member of the European Union or leave the Union on Thursday, 23 of June. This debate (Referendum) has caused a lot of political clash and emotional reaction among British voters, unfortunately a Member of Parliament was also murdered in a reaction to the campaign to Remain or leave the European Union. Opinion polls on the average put both the leave voters and remain voters at a very narrow gap.

Advocates of “the Leave” and “the remain” campaign have all come up with all sorts of arguments regarding why Voters should take either decision. The conspicuous arguments have centered on economy, immigration and political power. On the back of this, financial markets have been reacting to different swings from opinion polls in the last couple of weeks.

Without any doubt, the financial market will witness a huge volatility during and after the Referendum on Thursday. As a matter of fact, city traders are expected to work round the clock during the referendum so as to take advantage of Markets volatility.

The big question is how would Financial Markets react to either in or out result? Based on markets moves so far on different opinion polls result, I think an out vote will have more devastating impact on the global financial markets which literally mean a crash. We might see more than 10% drop on FTSE 100, Eurostoxx and German DAX in the first 24-48 hours of trading and GBP will plunge against the USD to test 2016 lows at 1.3814 and probably test the 2009 lows at 1.351. I will recommend trading GBP against JPY or CHF. However, a vote to remain might not see so many moves as much as the “Out vote”. I think all rallies as a result of “In vote” will be for a short term. I will recommend a short on the rallies.