NFP could be the catalyst today for some big break outs, or a move back into the range.

This week we have seen dollar strength across the board, this coupled with some dovish rhetoric from Ecb’s Mario Draghi.

If we look firstly at the dollar index we are forming a clear inverse head and shoulders.

DXY Daily chart

With this in mind, put simply if the number is better then expected, the dollar should rally and vice versa.  The expectations are for a read of  206k

For me the trades to watch out for are the EURUSD.

EURUSD Daily chart

And also the USDJPY pair.

USDJPY Daily chart

So expect a higher then expected number to send USDJPY up to test the 105.43, a bad number could see if collapse back down to the 100.75. For EURUSD expect a test of the 1.3640 on a good number and a break of this in the longer term to see the 1.3475, a bad number and we target the 1.3820.